Moderate Special Weather Statement | Effective 08/14/2026 23:44

An unsettled monsoon pattern, associated with Invest 92W continues to intensify across eastern Micronesia. Invest 92W is currently rated sub-low by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which means development into a significant tropical cyclone is not expected at this time. However, the latest ASCAT pass does show a low-level circulation center with near gale winds to the south of Chuuk. This indicates at least a bit of organization that could bump 92W up to low later tonight or Sunday. Somewhat of a lull in showers and storms is occurring due to changes in Invest 92Ws structure, and drier air mixing into the storm. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development of the storm next week. Periods of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of next week. Gusty winds are expected near heavier showers. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible through next week, with additional rainfall possible next weekend. These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding and potential mudslides. Towards the latter half of next week, a monsoon surge could develop and continue to impact Chuuk. Residents across Chuuk State should monitor local forecasts and heed advice of emergency managers when heavy rainfall occurs.